Bodner’s Buckets: The New NBA Lottery Odds
As Zach Lowe reported a few weeks ago, the NBA's Board of Governors are set to vote on the proposal for updating the lottery odds later this month. Lowe expects this to pass rather easily, with possibly only Philadelphia voting against the amendment.
If you've been a regular reader here on LibertyBallers and 973espn.com, you know that I think it stinks. Rather than fixing the actual problem -- which is that non-destination teams have little use for free agency as a means of building the core of their team -- they punish the reaction to the problem. The NBA draft is essential for teams that are not destinations to acquire the superstar player that can eventually make them become one. Changing the lottery odds doesn't lessen a have-not's reliance on the NBA draft, it just decreases the chances they'll get the help that they need by giving lady luck a larger role in the team building process.
My objection doesn't even come from the perspective of a 76ers fan, but an NBA fan. For the Sixers, once Joel Embiid comes back, Nerlens Noel and Michael Carter-Williamscontinue to develop, and Sam Hinkie starts using their cap space to acquire pieces to complement Embiid, I think that this could be the final year the Sixers are in contention for one of the worst 2-3 records in the league. Not that they'll be pushing for a playoff spot next year, but I think over the next 3-4 years the Sixers will spend more time in the 5-7 seed range rather than the 1-3 seed range. Long term, as you'll see below, this change could help the Sixers far more than it hurts them if this does end up being the case, even if it will be a blow to the teams plans for this upcoming summer.
But, this change is virtually inevitable. So I've created this table to give an overview of how life will change for 76ers, and NBA, fans. This table takes a look at each seed, comparing the old and new lottery odds, and looking at how their chances for the top pick, a top 3 pick, and a top 5 pick change. New odds courtesy of Lottery Bucket.
First, before glancing at the odds, a few quick notes: