A coastal storm system will clip New Jersey on Sunday, delivering a combination of rain and snow across the state through early Monday morning.

UPDATE as of 5:45 p.m. Sunday...

As of this writing, some mode of precipitation is now falling across all 21 counties of New Jersey. Some snow and sleet (especially north of the Raritan River). Some rain, the heaviest of which is centered over Burlington and Ocean counties.

As temperatures drop due to the rain (evaporative cooling) and nighttime falling, we will eventually transition to all snow, by around Midnight at the latest. This will be the prime time for snow accumulation, from late Sunday evening through early Monday morning. Remember, the biggest snow accumulations will be on cold surfaces like cars, grass, roofs, and trees.

I have been waffling all day over whether to increase my snow forecast from 1-3" to 2-4" for some area of the state. In the end, I'm holding firm on 1-3". I don't like flip-flopping back and forth with snow totals, especially at the last minute. And there have been just too many challenges and difficulties to warrant a higher forecast from this storm.

It seems pretty clear that the lowest snow totals will be in North Jersey. The highest snow amounts will likely fall in Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington, and Atlantic counties, especially west of the Garden State Parkway. A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect for these counties from 7pm until 6am.

You might want to set your alarm clock a few minutes early for tomorrow morning, to allow time to clear your car of snow and/or check for sporadic school closings and delays.


ORIGINAL POST from 7:30 a.m. Sunday...

Advisory

Current weather warnings, watches, and advisories for NJ. (Purple: Winter Weather Advisory)

--A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 7 p.m. Sunday until 6 a.m. Monday for the coastal plain of New Jersey, including Monmouth, Ocean, southeast Burlington, and interior Atlantic counties.

--This advisory means that travel may be hazardous at times during periods of snow, due to slippery road conditions and reduced visibility.

Timing

--Rain begins Sunday late morning to early afternoon, spreading from south to north.

--As temperatures drop Sunday evening, rain will transition to snow starting around 8 p.m.

--By about midnight Monday morning, the precipitation should be all snow.

--Tapering to snow showers by sunrise Monday morning.

--All precipitation gone by mid-morning Monday.

Accumulations

NAM model forecast for total liquid precipitation, through Monday midday. Heaviest amounts are expected along the Jersey Shore, with little to no rain/snow in the NW corner of the state. (WeatherBell Analytics)

--Still looking at a broad 1 to 3 inches of snow accumulation, especially on colder surfaces.

--Heaviest accumulation will occur Sunday evening through early Monday morning.

--Snow will be slow to accumulate on roads and other pavement surfaces. Conditions may still be slippery, especially if those surfaces have been untreated.

Along the Coast

The latest surge model is still showing about 1 foot rise on tidal waterways on Sunday into Monday.

Very minor coastal flooding will be possible, especially on roads that "usually" close due to water during coastal storm systems.

Ocean waves nearing 6 to 8 feet could also cause minor beach erosion.

Impacts

Road conditions will be the biggest problem throughout this storm. Whether the pavement is wet or icy, things could get quite slippery.

The heavy, wet nature of this snow could cause downed trees and power lines, so sporadic power outages are possible.

There's a slight chance for schools and businesses to close or delay on Monday, especially if more snow falls than this forecast suggests. However, as long as road crews keep ahead of the storm, closings and delays should not be widespread.

Next blog update: as needed throughout the storm

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.