Updated 2011 Phillies Roster and Payroll Projections
Here is a revised look at the Phillies 2012 roster and payroll projections following the Jonathan Papelbon and Brian Schneider signings, and the Ty Wigginton trade. The numbers for the arbitration players and players lacking service time are subject to change. They are merely educated guesses.
(There has been no talk about bringing back guys like Francisco or Martinez at this time, but there is obviously a chance they stay with the team given their price or given the Phillies ability to find someone to replace them. They could look for an alternative to Ben Fran and could also place Martinez in the minors for 2012.)
According to the Associated Press, it appears the MLB Luxury Tax will not be going up as it had the previous five seasons. It will remain the same as it was in 2011; $178 million. That doesn't necessarily mean the Phillies won't go over it, but in the past they've seemingly been reluctant to do it. It had gone up $8 million per season over the last five years of the old CBA. That's no longer the case.
Included in the new CBA is a provision that will raise the minimum salary from $414,000 to $480,000. That could change some things for the Phillies with guys like Mayberry and Martinez, et al. In the projections below, I've made those changes.
Blue: money that the Phillies owe in 2012
Red: educated guess as to how much player will earn in 2012 (arbitration or otherwise)
$50.428MM (7 players)
$24.175MM (4 players)
$70.35MM (6 players)
$17.125MM (5 players)
Estimated Total: $165.6 million (20 players, two buyouts)
Luxury Tax: $178 million (in 2012)
Give or take a player, the Phillies will have 22 players under contract heading into 2012 with a payroll of roughly $165.6 million, including the two buyouts. They’ll need five (or so) more players to fill out the roster with about $13-15 million to spend. With the changes in the minimum salaries and the luxury tax staying the same, would the Phillies go above that self-imposed hard line? No National League team has ever gone above it. Looks like the Phillies could be the first. They may not have a choice.
Teams that go over the threshold get penalized 22.5 percent on every dollar above. So, if they spend $1 million over, add $225K to that. If it's $5 million above, add $1.125 million.
According to USA Today’s salary database, the Phillies spent a shade under $173 million in 2011, Cot's Contracts says the Phillies spent $165 million.
With roughly $15 million left to spend this offseason, it now comes down to shortstop.