Phillies Mailbag: Luzardo, Pitching Plans, Playoff Odds

We are back once again with the 97.3 ESPN Phillies Mailbag.  The Phillies have just 12 games left over this week and next to make it to the playoffs.  We take your questions as the season winds down.

With Jesus Luzardo out a little, who do you have taking that number three spot if he isn’t back in time for the playoffs?
~John

Well, the good news for the Phillies is that Jesus Luzardo got an MRI and there was no structural damage to his arm.  There is, however, some inflammation in the arm.  After a few days of anti-inflammatory drugs, he will look to throw again.

But we saw where the damage was done.  Saturday's "bullpen game" quickly went south after Tim Mayza threw three impressive innings to open the game.  But what ensued shows you just how bad one starter being missed is going to be to the team.

First, let's talk about getting to that point.  The Phillies will need Luzardo's spot in the rotation two more times.  If all goes according to plan, the remaining games look like this:

9/15: Cristopher Sanchez
9/16: Zack Wheeler
9/17: Aaron Nola
9/18: Luzardo
9/19: Andrew Painter

9/20: Sanchez
9/22: Wheeler
9/23: Nola
9/24: Luzardo
9/25: Painter
9/26: Sanchez
9/27: Wheeler

With the off day on Monday, Painter could move up a day, if necessary, and pitch Friday on regular rest.  But either way, Luzardo would be needed for two more starts.

It concerns me more that the Phillies would have to throw two bullpen games into the mix as the effects of a bullpen game carry on to another day.  The Phillies did get Tanner Banks back, and stretched him to a second inning on Sunday to wrap up the day.  But swapping players back and forth is tough this time of year.

I suppose if they needed to plug someone in it would be Alan Rangel.  But that is not great if the Phillies are only "hopeful" he will pitch this week.  That's where they are right now.

If they get to the postseason without him?  They'll just have to move everyone else up.

How would you set up the Phillies post season pitching?
~Michael
Who’s going to the pen in the WC series?
~CJ

The Phillies have been on a pretty good stretch with their starting pitching.  Aside from a recent five-run blip, even Painter has been on a roll.  Nola has continued his post-All Star Game stretch.  Wheeler has leveled out.  And Sanchez, though looking a little tired, is still pitching good enough to win most of the time.

The questions around Luzardo continue, but here's what I would do:

1. Fight like hell and clinch before Saturday the 26th.  As it stands how, Sanchez is set to pitch Saturday the 26th, and Wheeler Sunday the 27th.   Have Alan Rangel throw innings.  Give Nestor Cortes some, for all I care.  Save Wheeler and Sanchez.

2. Give the ball to Sanchez in Game 1, Wheeler in Game 2, and (hopefully healthy) Luzardo in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series.

If the Phillies can win the Wild Card series in two games, then Luzardo becomes your NLDS first game starter.

That would set things up for Sanchez and Wheeler to pitch games two and three in the NLDS.   I would give the ball to Aaron Nola in game four, and then if necessary, Luzardo takes the ball in game 5.

Repeat the process the rest of the way, resetting back to Sanchez and Wheeler if a series ends quickly.

3. I would get Andrew Painter used to the bullpen now.  They can only do this if they are able to fill the innings of his start.  Maybe a combination of Rangel, Mayza, and Banks to eat up most of the start.  But the problem with that is that the Phillies must have Luzardo healthy.

If Luzardo is healthy, then you can start to see how Painter fares as a reliever now.  Give him an inning that Orion Kerkering might have gotten before, perhaps the 6th/7th inning.

Painter hit 99 miles per hour his last start.  Imagine him unleashing that for one inning at a time and not worrying about going deep.  That could be helpful.

But I would rather he get a taste for him now.

So to set that up, I would work on doing that the moment that we know that Luzardo is in the clear.

Do the Phillies have enough in the tank to string together a winning streak to catch Atlanta?
~Ed

The Phillies are now 4.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves.  I think it is time to call this over.  I think the Phillies would have needed to sweep the Braves this past weekend, not simply win 2 of 3.  But the Phillies lost 2 of 3, and with just 12 games to go, I think it's pretty much done.

MLB.com has the Phillies with a 97.5% chance of making the playoffs.

I don't think it's that guaranteed.

The Phillies have just a 1 game lead over the San Diego Padres for the final Wild Card Spot.    Their lead is just 3.5 games over the Arizona Diamondbacks.  The Phillies cannot take for granted yet that they are in.

Now, the Padres and Diamondbacks will play each other for three games, which could cancel some of that floor out.   But I think it's imperative that while the Padres play the Rockies and Marlins, the Phillies need to take care of business against the Nationals and the Mets.