Phillies Mailbag: Nola, NL East, Bullpen

We are back once again with the 97.3 ESPN Phillies Mailbag.  Each week we take your questions and answer them on The Sports Bash with Mike Gill.  Tune in each Tuesday afternoon to hear your questions answered on the air.

Realistically what can the Phillies do to unburden themselves from Aaron Nola starting that doesn’t include releasing him because we know the Phillies won’t do that.
~Jimmy

The Phillies seemed to be cruising toward another victory last night.  A 5-0 lead should be good enough, right?  The Phillies ultimately finished with seven runs - a number this team once struggled to get near.  But Aaron Nola allowed seven earned runs of his own total en route to an 11-7 Phillies loss

The Phillies acknowledged there is a  problem here.  They made sure that Jesus Luzardo was placed in between the Alan Rangel/bullpen game and Nola's starts so that they did not kill the bullpen.

What we are seeing right now from Aaron Nola is diminished velocity - and some balls that look very good to hit.

Nola has an .820 OPS against him for the season.  That number jumps to .909 the second time through the order.

Last night, after the Pirates got to Nola the second time, they were able to look for those pitches to hit.

What Nola will have to do is make adjustments.  When he was successful this year, he was good at painting around the strike zone.  Anything down the middle is going to get hit.

So what can the Phillies do?  Yes, Nola has four more years left on his contract at almost $25 million each.

I would do two things:

1) Solidify the fifth spot in the starting rotation.

So far Alan Rangel has been decent enough.  But the Phillies cannot afford to go to the bullpen early twice through the rotation.  But if the Phillies had a fourth starter that could be counted on to go every fifth day - maybe you feel better about Nola's starts.

2) Work on Nola's game plan and find source for velocity dip.

Nola's last few starts saw a dip in velocity.  Nola has been unable to match his velocity in 2024 - but largely has been better than 2025.  But those last few starts: are they part of a trend?

You can see Nola's peak velocity came during his victory in San Diego on 6/2 and 6/13 in Milwaukee, where he allowed three earned runs against a tough Brewers lineup.

So I would ask the following questions:

• Is there a strength and conditioning reason?
• Is there any type of minor injury?

If there are reasons for this dip in velocity, I would try to figure out what that is.

If it's just down: he will have to learn how to pitch different and adjust to his new reality.

Speaking of new realities:  Nola made 17 starts last year.  He had an ERA of 6.01.Through 17 starts this year? 6.04.

What’s your take on the NL East race nowadays? Lots of baseball left to be played.
~Ed

After last night's loss, the Phillies sit at 47-38.  The Braves are at 49-33.  The Phillies are now 3.5 games out of first place, far from the 10.5 games out they once were when Rob Thomson was dismissed.  Much more than the numbers, I would look at the trajectory of these teams.

The Phillies have obviously done a lot better once the calendar hit May.  After the 9-19 start, the Phillies are 38-20, a .655 clip.

The Braves, since the same point, the Braves are 29-24, a .547 clip.

If we took that same winning percentage for the Phillies of .655 and applied it to the rest of the season, 76 games, the Phillies would finish at 97-65.

If we took that same winning percentage of .547 for the Braves and applied it to the rest of the season, the Braves would finish at 94-68.

The Braves are 9-13 in June.  They are struggling to figure out how to cobble together a starting rotation.  But that probably will be addressed by the trade deadline.

The Phillies are are 17-9 in June.  They too have some flaws, but have been able to win almost two games for every loss.

I think that it's very possible that the Phillies are at or near the Braves come the All-Star break.  But I think the final story will be told by:

1) What trade deadline deadlines acquistions will each team make?
2) How will the two teams perform when they go head-to-head in September for six games?

The Phillies, though a flawed team, I think have a chance here.

How do the Phillies deal with this bullpen?  It's not as good as it was for a while there.
~Michael

The issue right now for the Phillies is not so much the bullpen, but the aforementioned starting rotation issues.  The Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter starts have strained the bullpen.  This means that many more innings were coming from the bullpen.

On a day that Zack Wheeler or Cristopher Sanchez starts, they often only need to fill one inning between their aces and bullpen ace, Jhoan Duran.

But if Nola cannot get through the fifth?  That's over four innings of bullpen.  And if Rangel uses an opener and only gets you to the fifth or sixth, that can be four innings of bullpen.

I think the return of Brad Keller, if healthy and effective, will be a big boost.  Hopefully after he heals, his command will return.

But I think that the Phillies would be wise to add a left-handed arm if they have the ability to do so.  That's a tall ask, because the Phillies probably have to also add a right-handed outfielder and a starting pitcher as well.

But that starting pitcher, even if they can give a consistent 5-6 innings that the Phillies can count in, will be really helpful in the bullpen not getting overworked.

Then they can worry less about shuffling the Max Lazars and Seth Johnsons back and forth to Triple-A just to have a "fresh arm".