Big game tonight for Game 6 of the NBA Finals, and we have some betting bits and notes to get into as well.

NBA Finals Game 6 betting

As of writing this, the Warriors are -3 at home, which is one of their lowest home lines of the season. And for good reason. The Raptors have been the better team thus far in the series. After being undervalued by the books all series long, they are now getting the respect they deserve.

Consider this: The Warriors have only been favored by less than five points at home five times this season, including all three games in this series. They are 2-3 against the spread and 0-2 this series in that situation. It takes a lot for books to favor them at home by fewer than five points, so the read is this is a Raptors line.

The Warriors are also 0-4 ATS without Durant when favored by six points or less. So there's that.

What's the play? At this point in any series it's hard to bet, but in this one we have some things to go on: this is a Raptors line and they've been the better team all series. Do with that what you will.

The over-under is 212. The money has been hammering the over in what feels like a low total. Really hard to get a read on this, but it's worth noting the Warriors ceiling has been 109 points in this series.


The props are more interesting to me in this one, and here's some to look at:

Kyle Lowry 15.5 points

The models are predicting the under here. Lowry's total has been anywhere from 13.5-15.5 this series. While I love Lowry, you're getting good value on the under. And when you consider that he hasn't been relied upon for scoring in this series and his thumb injury, it makes some sense. I'm not sure if I'll bet it, but Lowry and the under is a good bet.

Iguodala 8.5 points

I love the under on this. Iguodala has only scored more than eight points once in his last eight games, and actually does worse with Kevin Durant out of the lineup. He averages 38% more points per minute with Durant thanks to Durant's "gravity" (pulling defenders away). In fact, Iggy hasn't attempted more than eight shots since the second round and he rarely gets to the line. Strong under play here.

Value alerts

Not recommending these bets based on merit, but WilliamHill has some excellent value on special props among NJ sportsbooks.

DeMarcus Cousins points + rebounds 16.5

For someone being counted on more and who looks like they started getting back up to speed last game, 16.5 feels low.

Steph Curry points + rebounds + assists 42.5

The is great value. It is being offered at 44.5 at PointsBet. Just pure value here if you like the over.

Stanley Cup

We've all heard about the Blues bettor who turned $400 into $100,000. Vegas books had six figure exposure to Blues but moved series lines a bit to encourage Bruins action to mitigate loss. They still lost six figures last night.

The longest bet DraftKings took on the Blues was at 45-1 on Febuary 6. That $100 bet paid out $4,500 last night, though someone bet $5,000 on Blues at +750 in the WCF and won $32,500. Not bad.

Industry news

Rush Street told the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board yesterday that it would rebrand SugarHouse Casino to Rivers Casino, to match its brand in Pittsburgh. That means the recently launched SugarHouse Sportsbook will become Rivers Sportsbook sometime this summer.

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