Miami vs. Florida Betting Preview: Odds, Trends, Predictions

It is here. Football, nay, meaningful football is back this weekend when Miami and Florida take the field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando on Saturday night.

Let us rejoice.

Of course, that means that betting season is back, and I'm here to run you through some of the best sports betting sites. For those of you in New Jersey, it all starts with DraftKings Sportsbook which offers a strong $500 first bet match for new users.

Here's what you need to know to kickoff the official start of football season with a win.

Miami-Florida Odds

Here are the current Miami-Florida odds as of Friday afternoon, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

This game opened with Florida as a 7-point favorite at many legal online sportsbooks, but has since jumped up to 7.5 points.

Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 50.5 points at open all the way down to 46.5. We'll get to why that happened what it could possibly mean in a little bit.

The Manny Diaz Era begins on Saturday night for Miami, while Dan Mullen looks to build on No. 8 Florida's success in his second season with the Gators.

On the offensive side of the ball for the Hurricanes, redshirt freshman quarterback Jarren Williams will get the start after beating out highly-touted Ohio State transfer Tate Martell. He could be in for a rough debut with true freshman Zion Nelson getting the start at left tackle and redshirt freshman John Campbell starting at right tackle. That's a ton of inexperience at several key positions for an offense that has to deal with a talented and veteran Florida defense.

Meanwhile, Florida will look to ride last season's momentum into this game. The Gators put up at least 40 points in each of their final three games, all blowouts, to finish the 2018 season. Florida quarterback Feleipe Franks will look to build off a season in which he threw for 24 touchdowns against only six interceptions. The Gators aren't without offensive questions, though, with four new starters along the offensive line.

Miami-Florida Betting Trends

Going Under?

Let's first tackle the total. As noted above, the total in this game has dropped between 3 to 4 points at most sportsbooks. That has a lot to with what I mentioned in the game preview section. Offensive line uncertainty paired with two above average defenses in an early season game has the feel of an under. In particular, I expect that Miami is going to struggle to score in this game.

Dating back to 2005, the under is 14-9 when the total drops between two to three points from open to close. It's 4-3 when it drops exactly four points.

A Troubling Trend for Miami

ACC squads that are an underdog of 7 to 10 points to SEC schools are 0-5 ATS dating back to the 2014 season and are 1-6 when that range expands to 7 to 13 points.

Miami-Florida Betting Prediction

I don't love the total as much as I do the side in this game, but my lean is on the under for the reasons above. Meanwhile, I'm siding with the Gators. There's no doubt that 7.5 points in a much-hyped Week 0 game is a lot, particularly considering that teams favored between 7 to 9 points in August games are only 7-15 ATS since the 2006 season, but I simply think Florida is further along than Miami and thus the superior team. Dan Mullen is 7-3 ATS as a head coach when favored between 7 to 10 points, Florida was the better cover team a season ago with a 9-4 ATS record to Miami's 5-8 ATS mark, and they've got the more experienced quarterback.

Give me the Gators laying the points.

Florida 27, Miami 16