Phillies Mailbag: Painter, Catching, N.L. East Repeat?

We are back with an Opening Day edition of the Phillies mailbag.  Each week we take your questions and answer them on The Sports Bash with Mike Gill.  Tune in Tuesday afternoons to hear your questions answered on the air.

What do you expect from Andrew Painter this year?
~Steve

Heading into Spring Training, Phillies prospect Andrew Painter was supposedly battling for a job.  Donning number 76, it was clear from almost the beginning that Painter fit right in and was going to be a member of the starting rotation.

So much so that free agent pitchers like Walker Buehler did not wish to sign because they thought the Phillies would have so much pitching that there would not be an opportunity.

Everything that Painter does has suggested he belongs in a major league rotation.  My expectation would be that he pitches like he is in one.

I do not think he will necessarily come in guns blazing into the league like Paul Skenes or Nolan McLean. 

I am not sure that I want to come up with specific numbers right now, but I would say I expect this:

Painter will be pitching well enough that when Zack Wheeler returns in a month, it will be Taijuan Walker who departs the rotation, not Painter.

The only question in my mind is how the Phillies will manage the innings.  I do not want to see a Stephen Strasburg situation in which Painter is not available for the playoffs.   The Phillies say there is no "hard cap" innings limit.

But my guess is that they will find a way to keep his innings down some one way or another.

Why did Rafael Marchan make the Phillies over Garrett Stubbs?  Can Stubbs still come back to the Phillies?
~Alan

The Phillies, as largely expected, named Rafael Marchan the backup catcher on the Opening Day roster.  I say "as expected" because Marchan performed admirably last season.  The catching metrics actually had him very close to J.T. Realmuto in the backstop position.

Marchan ranked fifth in baseball last season in pop time.  Pop time is the time it takes for the ball to "pop" into the catcher's mitt and get to the second baseman's mitt.

Not bad for a backup catcher.

The Phillies gave Garrett Stubbs what is called a "split" contract for 2026.  He would earn one amount in the major leagues, but a remarkable $575,000 should he accept an assignment to Triple-A.

That's the Phillies paying him extra to be a mentor to the minor leagues.  The contract suggested from the start that the Phillies did not anticipate he would make the Opening Day roster but would take care of him.

So first, the Phillies will try to find a trade partner for Stubbs.  It's jsut a nod of respect to the veteran.  His agent will be able to shop for a deal, too, on behalf of his client.

If they cannot find a trade partner for Stubbs, they will go the "designate for assignment" route.  To designate a player's contract for assignment means he is removed from the 40-man roster, pending what comes next.   What would be next is that the Phillies would look to outright him to Triple-A.

For that to happen, Stubbs would have to clear waivers.  Once that happens, he would earn $575,000 as a Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

There, he and Rene Pinto would serve as catching depth at Triple-A.  Either player would have to be added to the 40-man roster to be recalled.

But prospect Caleb Ricketts could also be at Triple-A and Stubbs could end up playing other positions, as he did at the end of Spring Training.

I think that Stubbs is viewed as a potential coach in the Phillies system.  I cannot think of any glaring situtations that would make Stubbs a fit on a major league team right now.  If he finds one, great for him.  If not, he will be welcome in the Phillies organization.

How can the Phillies win the National League East? The Mets and Braves are better.
~Shane

The Phillies remain my pick for the National League East.   The Braves have had tremendous bad luck this offseason.  Meanwhile, the Mets have improved, but still have some holes.

Here is how I see it:

1. Phillies
2. Mets
3. Braves

I do not think there is going to be any type of big Mets collapse this year.   I think they will be significantly improved with Nolan McLean and Freddy Peralta in the starting rotation.

They (did you hear?) added Bo Bichette to the offense.  Returning is Francisco Lindor, despite a hamate injury scare.  They added Jorge Polanco and Marcus Semien.

They also made some key subtractions that will shake up a Mets culture that could just not find a way to win games.

The Mets bullpen is simply not good.  Devin Williams is decent, but behind him is Luke Weaver and... Sean Manaea?  I think this will be the area of the team that costs the Mets some games late.  And they will have painful losses.

I have the Mets about 88 or so games, good for second in the N.L. East and a Wild Card.

As for the Braves, it looks like Ronald Acuna, Jr. is back to his old self, if the World Baseball Classic is any indication.

But with injuries to Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider in the rotation, the PED suspension for Jurrickson Profrar, the injury loss of $20 million signee Ha-Seong Kim, and catcher Sean Murphy, I think this is a long season for the Braves.

I have them about the .500 mark and third place.

I do think the Phillies will take the division.  I think it will be less of a runaway situation.  And hopefully, that will have them more prepared for the postseason this year.  I think the Phillies will find their right-handed bat at the deadline and it will make all the difference.

I don't think they'll win 96 again, but I can easily see 93 or 94 wins.