Betting Stats and Picks For NBA Finals Game 4

With the Raptors leading the NBA Finals 2-1 and Craig Berube and the St. Louis Blues being one game away from the Stanley Cup, by this time next weekend we might be looking at the steep wagering abyss of baseball, golf and the Women's World Cup for the summer.

But we have at least a few more huge games on the docket before we get there.

Without further ado.

Warriors-Raptors Game 4

The Warriors once against opened at around a 5.5-point favorite, as they did in Game 3, but the line quickly shifted at most books, including DraftKings Sportsbook, to -4.5. This appears to be the "with Klay Thompson" number, as it held there right up until tip time of Game 3 when it quickly dipped to -3 once it was announced Thompson was out.

He appears to be a full-go tonight, so the Warriors are getting lukewarm home court support in the eyes of the bookmakers.

It's worth noting, however, that this will be only the fifth time all season they've been favored by less than five at home (including Game 3), and they are 2-2 against the spread in that situation.

Where's the money going?

As of late this afternoon, DraftKings says they have 53% of the bets but 66% of the money on the Warriors to cover. Moneyline bets are slightly in favor of the Warriors as well. This is in contrast to Game 3, where money was on the Raptors due to Klay Thompson uncertainty.

Where's the value?

Both teams!

The Raptors have been a value all series and they might still be tonight. FiveThirtyEight gives them a 44% chance to win Game 4 and sets the line +1.5, but the implied probability of +165 on the moneyline is only 37%. This means bettors are getting some value if they choose to bet the Raptors tonight.

Before the series, at plus money, the Raptors were an even better value to win the series. I got them at +230. Now they're the favorite.

This, of course, opens up an opportunity on the Warriors.

It's rare the Warriors are an underdog the win the NBA Finals at anytime during the season let alone prior to Game 4-- so you'll be forgiven for taking a swing at the Warriors on plus money at this juncture despite injury concerns and the real possibility Kevin Durant never plays for The Town again.

Prop bets

One of my favorite things to do, now that online sports betting in PA is live, is to load up on prop bets for big games. Why? Game lines are generally hammered well into place. And a lot of public betting action and injury uncertainties, in this series specifically, makes point spread betting that much harder. Players props, on the other hand, remove some of the variables and provide some value.

Some I like for Game 4:

I've been all over Pascal Siakam rebounds in this series. He's consistently been listed at 7.5 and hit the over each of the first three games (8-8-9). I don't like to play a hand to its eventual loss, but this is a good bet if you want it.

This one pains me as a Villanova alum, but Kyle Lowry's point total has jumped from 13.5 to 15.5. on the strength of his Game 3 performance. This is just above his season average, and consider that he had trouble scoring in Games 1 and 2, perhaps due to the fact that he can't feel his left thumb during games. The move up to 15.5 provides some value on the under.

Andre Iguodala over 3.5 assists. He dipped down to only three in Game 3, without Klay Thompson, who scores the vast majority of his threes off assists. His return should provide opportunity for Iguodala and other Warriors to increase their assist totals.

Pick

I don't love the spread in this one because of the injury uncertainty. But if Klay Thompson plays, I think the Warriors muster enough to use the home crowd to their advantage. I'll take the Warriors outright at a small amount and bet more heavily on the props.