NFL Network Simulations Have Philadelphia Eagles Winning NFC East
The NFL schedule was released on Thursday and everyone started predicting their favorite teams record. NFL Network analyst Cynthia Frelund went a step further, simulating the entire NFL season 75,000 times to project each team’s record for 2022.
In those simulations, the Eagles averaged 9.8 wins, about where they ended the 2021 season, where they finished 9-8 on the season.
Only Tampa Bay, the LA Rams and the Green Bay Packers in the NFC had higher average win totals, which puts the Eagles in the playoffs as NFC East champions.
Dallas was the next team, averaging 9.6 wind in the simulations.
Frelund explained the the Eagles had the most favorable schedule in the simulation, noting the most difficult stretch of their slate doesn't come until Weeks 11 through 13, giving them plenty of tie to mesh before they get to that part of the schedule.
The Eagles started 2-6 last season, but had a much easier slate of games in the second half of the year, winning seven of their final nine games to sneak into the NFC playoff field, getting bounded by Tampa Bay in the Wild Card game.
Philadelphia will not play consecutive road games until a three game stretch in Week 14-16, before closing out the year hosting New Orleans and New York Giants to end the year.
The Eagles have my model’s most favorable schedule. And on top of that, the order creates the optimal time for new receiver A.J. Brown to establish a rapport with his new QB, Jalen Hurts. No team’s win total increased more based on the schedule release than the Eagles', who added 0.6 wins! Their hardest stretch is from Weeks 11 through 13, when they'll play the only two teams my model currently favors by more than 2 percentage points (Colts and Packers), before facing the Titans in what projects to be a close game due to it occurring immediately after Philly plays Green Bay.
The Eagles won the division over Dallas in Frelund’s simulations, with Washington finishing in third with 7.8 wins and New York last with 6.5 wins.
Carolina was projected to be the worst team in the NFC with just 5.1 wins this season.